Report
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• Sept. 17, 2026References and supplemental information
Report
5 min read
• Sept. 17, 2026BNEF Li-ion Battery Price Survey, from BloombergNEF, 2025
BNEF Wind and Solar Tracker: Historical data from the Capacity and Generation Power tool tracker from BloombergNEF, 2026
BNEF Comparison of global and regional data-center power demand outlooks from BloombergNEF, 2026
IAEA PRIS Database: Publicly available data from the Power Reactor Information System, developed and maintained by the International Atomic Energy Agency, 2026.
Edward Byers, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi, Roberto Schaeffer, Jarmo Kikstra, Robin Lamboll, Zebedee Nicholls, Marit Sanstad, Chris Smith, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Franck Lecocq, Joana Portugal-Pereira, Yamina Saheb, Anders Strømann, Harald Winkler, Cornelia Auer, Elina Brutschin, Matthew Gidden, Philip Hackstock, Mathijs Harmsen, Daniel Huppmann, Peter Kolp, Claire Lepault, Jared Lewis, Giacomo Marangoni, Eduardo Müller-Casseres, Ragnhild Skeie, Michaela Werning, Katherine Calvin, Piers Forster, Celine Guivarch, Tomoko Hasegawa, Malte Meinshausen, Glen Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Bjorn Samset, Julia Steinberger, Massimo Tavoni, Detlef van Vuuren. AR6 Scenarios Database hosted by IIASA, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2022. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.5886911 | url: data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ar6/; Likely Below 2°C defined by category C3
EIA, Today in Energy (2018): U.S. monthly crude oil production exceeds 10 million barrels per day, highest since 1970 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=34772
EIA, Natural Gas Explained https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/natural-gas/natural-gas-and-the-environment.php (accessed July 2025)
European Union Aviation Safety Agency (2025): 2024 Aviation fuels reference prices for ReFuelEU aviation
IEA (2025), Energy Efficiency 2025, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-efficiency-2025, Licence: CC BY 4.0
IEA (2024), World Energy Outlook 2024, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024, Licence: CC BY 4.0 (report); CC BY NC SA 4.0 (Annex A)
IEA (2025), World Energy Outlook 2025, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2025, Licence: CC BY 4.0 (report); CC BY NC SA 4.0 (Annex A)
IEA (2024), Strategies for Affordable and Fair Clean Energy Transitions, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/strategies-for-affordable-and-fair-clean-energy-transitions, Licence: CC BY 4.0
IEA (2025), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report, 2025, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-sdg7-the-energy-progress-report-2025, Licence: CC BY NC 3.0 IGO
IEA Transport Project: Where cited, this analysis is partially based on the historical data developed by the International Energy Agency, 2025 as part of its Transport project, all rights reserved, but the resulting analysis has been prepared by Exxon Mobil and does not necessarily reflect the views of the International Energy Agency.
International Association of Oil & Gas Producers: https://iogpeurope.org/projects/the-impact-of-the-eu-methane-regulation/
International Energy Agency Policies Database: Policy database – Data & Statistics - IEA
IRENA (2026) Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025 https://www.irena.org/Publications/2025/Jun/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2024
Goal 7: Affordable and Clean Energy,” United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/energy/ (Accessed July 2026)
Moss, Todd; Bazilian, Morgan; Blimpo, Moussa; Culver, Lauren; Kincer, Jacob; Mahadavan, Meera; Modi, Vijay; Muhwezi, Bob; Mutiso, Rose; Sivaram, Varun; Taneja, Jay; Thurber, Mark; Uprelainen, Johannes; Webber, Michael. Energy for Growth Hub 2021: The Modern Energy Minimum: The case for a new global electricity consumption threshold
S&P World Biodiesel Price Reports (Vol 18: 2024), S&P Global Commodity Insights
Smil, V. (2010) Energy Transitions: History, Requirements, Prospects. ABC-CLIO, Santa Barbara.
The Economist (2025): The Humbling of Green Europe https://www.economist.com/briefing/2025/07/31/the-humbling-of-green-europe
UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 2025. Human Development Report 2023/2024: Breaking the gridlock; Reimagining cooperation in a polarized world. New York.
United Nations Environment Programme Emissions Gap Report 2025, Off target, https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2025
United Stated Department of Energy (DOE) Industrial Decarbonization Liftoff Report (2023)
The World Bank: World Development Indicators https://wdi.worldbank.org/table/4.2 (accessed July 2026)
The Draghi report on EU competitiveness https://commission.europa.eu/topics/eu-competitiveness/draghi-report_en
Wood Mackenzie project database: Wood Mackenzie 1Q 2026 hydrogen and carbon capture Project Tracker.
World Health Organization Fact Sheet: Household air pollution. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/household-air- pollution-and-health (Accessed July 2026)
Supplemental information
Aviation battery weight
- Case is for fuel burned needed for Boston to Seattle Flight of 737-8 with Turbofans: From "737 MAX 8 & 9 fuel burn and operating performance" in Aircraft Commerce, #137 Aug/Sept 2021, 85% passenger payload case.
- Aircraft specifications take from same reference.
- Propulsive and thermal efficiency of turbofan take from Bjorn Fehrm, Leeham News, 12 April 2024, https://leehamnews.com/2024/04/12/bjorns-corner-new-engine-development-part-3-propulsive-efficiency/ and estimated from trendline in Pratt and Whitney ASA (Paris - 2015).
- Propeller propulsive efficiency taken from Johanning and Scholz, Propeller Efficiency Calculation in Conceptual Aircraft Design (2013).
- Battery cell energy density taken to be 330 Wh/kg as per latest CATL release: https://www.catl.com/en/research/technology/ (accessed July 2025).
- No additional battery energy density debits taken for battery pack and battery managements system, state-of-charge safety margins, cell aging or fuel reserve as per Viswanathan (2022).
- Mass of turbofan plane with fuel and cargo is considered to be maximum takeoff weight.
Global Outlook
Cautionary statement
The Global Outlook includes ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation’s internal estimates of both historical levels and projections of challenging topics such as global energy demand, supply, and trends through 2050 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from many external sources including the International Energy Agency. Separate from ExxonMobil’s analysis, we discuss a number of third-party scenarios such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Likely Below 2°C and the International Energy Agency scenarios. Third-party scenarios discussed in this report reflect the modeling assumptions and outputs of their respective authors, not ExxonMobil, and their use and inclusion herein is not an endorsement by ExxonMobil of their results, likelihood, or probability. Work on the Outlook and report was conducted during 2025 and 2026. The report contains forward-looking statements, including projections, targets, expectations, estimates, and assumptions of future behaviors. Actual future conditions and results (including but not limited to energy demand, energy supply, the growth of energy demand and supply, the impact of new technologies, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy, emissions, and plans to reduce emissions) could differ materially due to changes in a number of factors, including: economic conditions, the ability to scale new technologies on a cost-effective basis, unexpected technological developments, the development of new supply sources, changes in law or government policy, political events, demographic changes and migration patterns, trade patterns, trade tariffs and trade sanctions, the development and enforcement of global, regional or national mandates, changes in consumer preferences, escalating geopolitical volatility, including regime changes, war, civil unrest, and other political or security disturbances, including disruption of land or sea transportation routes, decoupling of economies, realignment of global trade and supply chain networks, and disruptions in military alliances and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/.
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