CO₂ emissions fall 20% by 2050, but more progress is needed

For the first time in modern history, emissions are projected to peak and begin a sustained decline this decade even as economies expand and living standards improve. By 2050, we project global CO₂ emissions to decline by 20% from current levels. This happens because efficiency will improve, and the world will use more lower-emissions technologies, including renewables, carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, and biofuels while reducing use of coal.

Overall, energy-related CO₂ emissions are projected to peak at approximately 36 billion metric tons per year sometime this decade and then decline to approximately 30 billion metric tons per year in 2050.

That will be great progress. Even so, more is needed to reach emission levels consistent with keeping global temperature increases below 2°C. The average of the IPCC’s Likely Below 2°C scenarios requires energy-related CO₂ emissions to fall to around 11 billion metric tons per year by 2050.

The IPCC and our Outlook see the need for both established and emerging technologies to progress faster, in some cases at an unprecedented buildout.

For example, the IPCC’s Likely Below 2°C scenarios suggest that wind and solar need to grow at an average of 10% per year from 2020-2050, which is broadly in line with recent history. However, carbon capture and storage needs to grow at more than 30% per year through 2050 to meet the IPCC’s Likely Below 2°C scenarios. CCS is not the only technology that will need to be accelerated on an immense scale. Low-carbon hydrogen and biofuels will need to play a much larger role as well.

Our Outlook projects that CCS, H₂, and biofuels will increase ~60x, 30x, and 2x, respectively by 2050 vs. current levels; however, this is still below the level required in the IPCC Likely Below 2°C scenarios due primarily to a lack of policy support.

These signposts provide valuable insight into current trends and what is needed to achieve a range of potential emissions pathways.

• Solar and wind have seen significant acceleration in deployment over recent years, with the largest growth occurring in China.
• Biofuels are also seeing substantial growth driven by both policy and market factors.
• CCS and low-carbon hydrogen are essential technologies in all projections and scenarios, but they have not yet seen widespread deployment due to lack of policy support and market willingness to pay.

It is also clear that while there is a range of potential outcomes for each solution to 2030, all solutions need to increase deployment this decade. This is the case for our Global Outlook, government pledges (as described in IEA APS), and the IPCC Likely Below 2°C scenarios.

What is needed to accelerate emissions reduction?

It has now been over 20 years since the Kyoto protocol came into force and over 10 years since the Paris climate agreement. Yet global energy related CO₂ emissions continued to rise at ~1% per year in 2025, a rate that is unchanged from the 20-year average. This suggests a different policy approach may be needed to reach society’s climate goals.

The IPCC scenarios highlight the importance of considering full climate impact when setting emissions targets, not just focusing on the timing of net-zero GHG emissions. In fact, overly focusing on net zero timing has the potential to constrain energy supply, leading to price shocks which can cause consumers to lose confidence in the economy.

Further, there is no single emissions pathway that defines society’s climate goals. Looking at the IPCC Likely Below 2°C scenarios (C3), we see the timing of net-zero emissions ranges from ~2050 to >2100. Similarly for 1.5°C scenarios (C1/C2), we see the net zero timing ranges from ~2035 to 2080.

So, what is needed to affordably achieve society’s climate goals?

• Policy should be designed in such a way to avoid sudden energy price spikes that will reduce consumer confidence AND support long-term economic growth, which is essential to improving long-term affordability.
• Technology advancements & deployment, supported by “all of the above,” technology neutral policy frameworks, will over time reduce technology cost, further improving affordability.
• Market-driven solutions must ultimately develop to naturally select the most cost-effective technologies for companies and consumers.

Want more information? Explore our Advancing Climate Solutions report.