4 min read
• Aug. 26, 2024Energy demand trends
By 2050, growing population and rising prosperity in developing nations drives:
- Global electricity demand to nearly double.
- Energy demand for transportation to grow by more than 20%.
- Energy demand for industry to grow by 20%.
4 min read
• Aug. 26, 20242050 insights
15% more energy is projected to be needed in 2050 compared to 2023, driven by growing population and rising prosperity in developing nations.
Electricity generation
- Global electricity demand nearly doubles by 2050, as electrification increases in buildings, industrial manufacturing, and transportation.
- Much of the world continues to shift further toward lower-emission sources for electricity generation, led by wind and solar, natural gas, and nuclear, based on local opportunities and policies.
Transportation
- Energy demand for transportation grows more than 20% to 2050, and remains the leading sector for liquids demand.
- The biggest growth is in commercial transportation such as trucks, shipping, and aviation, while passenger cars continue to make up ~30% of demand in 2050.
Industry
- Industrial energy demand grows 20%, driven by heavy industry (steel, cement, metals, and manufacturing) and chemicals (plastics, fertilizer, and other chemical products).
- Industry uses energy products both as a fuel and as a feedstock for chemicals, asphalt, lubricants, waxes, and other specialty products.
Global energy demand by sector
Primary energy - Quadrillion Btu
![Image Global energy demand by sector](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/2024gocharts-energydemandtrends-v2-01.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Developing countries lead energy demand
Primary energy - Quadrillion Btu
![Image Developing countries lead energy demand](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/2024gocharts-energydemandtrends-v2-02.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Electricity generation
Electricity use grows across all sectors driven by growing use in buildings, rising industrial activity, and increased demand from electric vehicles.
Global electricity use by sector
Thousands terawatt-hours
![Image Global electricity use by sector](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/2024gocharts-energydemandtrends-v2-03.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Renewables and natural gas dominate growth
Global growth 2023-2050 - thousand terawatt-hours (net delivered)
![Image Renewables and natural gas dominate growth](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/2024gocharts-energydemandtrends-v2-04.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Lower-carbon sources, including renewables and natural gas dominate growth in electricity generation.
- Coal-fired generation drops from a 45% to 20% share by 2050 in developing countries, and from 15% to 1% in developed nations.
Buildings demand by region
Quadrillion Btu
![Image Buildings demand by region](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/2024gocharts-energydemandtrends-v2-05.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Buildings demand world mix
Quadrillion Btu
![Image Buildings demand world mix](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/energy-demand-trends/2024gocharts-energydemandtrends-v4-06.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Energy demand growth in residential and commercial buildings shifts to developing countries.
- 50% of energy for buildings will be powered by electricity in 2050, up from 35% today.
Transportation
Commercial transportation, heavy trucks, aviation, marine, and rail, grow by 35% and are the primary drivers of energy growth in transportation.
- 80% of this growth is in developing countries, driven by increases in population and GDP.
Global transportation energy demand
Million barrels per day of oil equivalent
![Image Global transportation energy demand](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/2024gocharts-energydemandtrends-v2-07.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Light-duty demand drops
Million barrels per day of oil equivalent
![Image Light-duty demand drops](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/2024gocharts-energydemandtrends-v2-08.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
![Image](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/energy-demand-trends/2024gocharts-energydemandtrends-v4-09.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
EVs continue to grow in market share.
- However, even as EV sales increase, it takes 10-15 years for the passenger car fleet to turn over. Therefore, internal combustion engines will continue to be on the road beyond 2050.
Oil demand (excluding biofuels) back to 2010 levels in sensitivity
Million barrels per day of oil equivalent
![Image Oil demand (excluding biofuels) back to 2010 levels in sensitivity](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/energy-demand-trends/2024gocharts-energydemandtrends-v2-10.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Energy-related CO2 emissions down 5% in sensitivity
Billion tonnes
![Image Energy-related CO2 emissions down 5% in sensitivity](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/2024gocharts-energydemandtrends-v3-11.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Passenger car sensitivity analysis: What if global car sales achieved 100% battery-electric by 2035?
- The Global Outlook projects battery-electric vehicles to be ~25% of all new car sales by 2035 and ~35% by 2050 (excluding plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and Fuel Cell). Compare that to this sensitivity, which assumes 100% battery electric vehicle sales from 2035 onward, resulting in an almost fully electrified global car fleet by 2050.
- This 100% electric fleet would reduce global demand for oil back to the same levels they were in 2010. CO2 emissions decrease ~4% versus the Global Outlook, with the decline in light-duty CO2 emissions partially offset by emissions from increased power generation.
Heavy-duty fuel demand
Million barrels per day of oil equivalent
![Image Heavy-duty fuel demand](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/2024gocharts-energydemandtrends-v3-12.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Alternate EV sales assumption: 100% LCV by 2035, and 70% MCV and 20% HCV by 2040.
This reflects an ExxonMobil hypothetical sensitivity; not a base case.
Fuel share analysis is based on IEA The Future of Trucks, 2017, IEA Transport Project (see reference list), ExxonMobil analyses.
Liquids demand with heavy-duty truck sensitivity
Million barrels per day of oil equivalent
![Image Liquids demand with heavy-duty truck sensitivity](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/2024gocharts-energydemandtrends-v3-13.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Alternate EV sales assumption: 100% LCV by 2035, and 70% MCV and 20% HCV by 2040.
This reflects an ExxonMobil hypothetical sensitivity; not a base case.
Fuel share analysis is based on IEA The Future of Trucks, 2017, IEA Transport Project (see reference list), ExxonMobil analyses.
Heavy-duty truck sensitivity analysis: What if technology advances enabled faster transition to lower-emission freight solutions?
- This technology sensitivity evaluates nearly 100% electrification of light commercial vehicles, about 70% alternative fuels in medium commercial vehicles, and about 20% penetration of alternative fuels in long-haul commercial vehicles by 2050.
- This technology sensitivity results in 2050 liquids demand similar to current levels.
- Technology development to drive continued efficiency gains is also important. The upside sensitivity explores the impact of a potential fuel efficiency gains slow down at half (0.6% improvement per year) of historical trends (1.2% improvement per year), resulting in a 20% increase of heavy-duty fuel demand in 2050.
Industry
The industrial sector provides the goods and builds infrastructure underpinning global economic expansion.
- Industrial energy demand grows nearly 20% by 2050 as the sector produces the basic materials, such as steel, cement, and chemicals needed for modern living.
- The industrial sector also currently provides about a billion jobs for people who work to feed, clothe, shelter, and improve the lives of people around the world.
Global industrial energy demand
Quadrillion Btu
![Image Global industrial energy demand](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/2024gocharts-energydemandtrends-v2-14.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Oil, natural gas, and electricity fuel industry growth
World - Quadrillion Btu
![Image Oil, natural gas, and electricity fuel industry growth](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/2024gocharts-energydemandtrends-v2-15.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Oil, natural gas, and electricity contribute almost all the energy needed to replace coal and meet industrial energy growth to 2050.
- Oil and natural gas are important feedstocks used to make products as well as provide high heat for large industrial processes.
- Electrification is well suited for lower temperature or less energy intensive applications.
Chemicals feed and energy growth
Quadrillion Btu
![Image Chemicals feed and energy growth](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/energy-demand-trends/2024gocharts-energydemandtrends-v2-16.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Chemicals production relies on oil and natural gas
World - Quadrillion Btu
![Image Chemicals production relies on oil and natural gas](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/2024gocharts-energydemandtrends-v2-17.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Consumer demand boosts the need for chemicals.
- Chemicals play a vital role in meeting our basic needs of food, clothing, shelter, and healthcare. For example, chemicals are used in fertilizers for agriculture, synthetic fibers for clothes, and building materials for modern structures.
- Asia Pacific’s chemicals production grows to meet the needs of its rising middle class.
- Naphtha (an oil product) remains the dominant feedstock in Asia, while North America and the Middle East rely on natural gas liquids and natural gas.
Industrial energy demand excluding feedstocks
World - Quadrillion Btu
![Image Industrial energy demand excluding feedstocks](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/energy-demand-trends/2024gocharts-energydemandtrends-v2-18.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Source (see reference list): IPCC: AR6 Scenarios Database hosted by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) release 1.0 average of IPCC C3: "Likely Below 2°C" scenarios.
For comparability with IPCC Likely Below 2°C scenario, Global Outlook industrial demand is restated to include fuel but exclude feedstocks, notably Naphtha and LPG in the chemicals sector.
Transforming and decarbonizing the manufacturing industry will be challenging. It’s large and complex, and it takes large amounts of heat to make basic materials such as cement and steel.
- Our projection indicates more efforts will be required to further decarbonize industry to reduce emissions to the level of the IPCC Likely Below 2°C scenarios.
- Carbon capture and storage can provide a scalable solution to capture the emissions of both energy use and processing, for example from cement production.
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Cautionary statement
The Global Outlook includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates of both historical levels and projections of challenging topics such as energy demand, supply, and trends through 2050 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from many external sources including the International Energy Agency. Separate from ExxonMobil’s analysis, we discuss a number of third-party scenarios such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Likely Below 2°C and the International Energy Agency scenarios. Third-party scenarios discussed in this report reflect the modeling assumptions and outputs of their respective authors, not ExxonMobil, and their use and inclusion herein is not an endorsement by ExxonMobil of their results, likelihood or probability. Work on the Outlook and report was conducted during 2023 and 2024. The report contains forward looking statements, including projections, targets, expectations, estimates and assumptions of future behaviors. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the growth of energy demand and supply, the impact of new technologies, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy, emissions and plans to reduce emissions) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, the ability to scale new technologies on a cost-effective basis, unexpected technological developments, the development of new supply sources, changes in law or government policy, political events, demographic changes and migration patterns, trade patterns, the development and enforcement of global, regional or national mandates, changes in consumer preferences, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. The Outlook was published in August 2024. ExxonMobil assumes no duty to update these statements or materials as of any future date, and neither future distribution of this material nor the continued availability of this material in archive form on our website should be deemed to constitute an update or re-affirmation of this material as of any future date. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.