Energy demand trends

2050 insights

15% more energy is projected to be needed in 2050 compared to 2023, driven by growing population and rising prosperity in developing nations.

Electricity generation

• Global electricity demand nearly doubles by 2050, as electrification increases in buildings, industrial manufacturing, and transportation.
• Much of the world continues to shift further toward lower-emission sources for electricity generation, led by wind and solar, natural gas, and nuclear, based on local opportunities and policies.

Transportation

• Energy demand for transportation grows more than 20% to 2050, and remains the leading sector for liquids demand.
• The biggest growth is in commercial transportation such as trucks, shipping, and aviation, while passenger cars continue to make up ~30% of demand in 2050.

Industry

• Industrial energy demand grows 20%, driven by heavy industry (steel, cement, metals, and manufacturing) and chemicals (plastics, fertilizer, and other chemical products).
• Industry uses energy products both as a fuel and as a feedstock for chemicals, asphalt, lubricants, waxes, and other specialty products.

Electricity generation

Electricity use grows across all sectors driven by growing use in buildings, rising industrial activity, and increased demand from electric vehicles.

Lower-carbon sources, including renewables and natural gas dominate growth in electricity generation.

• Coal-fired generation drops from a 45% to 20% share by 2050 in developing countries, and from 15% to 1% in developed nations.

Energy demand growth in residential and commercial buildings shifts to developing countries.

• 50% of energy for buildings will be powered by electricity in 2050, up from 35% today.

Transportation

Commercial transportation, heavy trucks, aviation, marine, and rail, grow by 35% and are the primary drivers of energy growth in transportation.

• 80% of this growth is in developing countries, driven by increases in population and GDP.

Oil use for passenger car fuels (excluding biofuels) drops ~25%, primarily driven by improved fuel efficiency and switching to electric vehicles.

EVs continue to grow in market share.

• However, even as EV sales increase, it takes 10-15 years for the passenger car fleet to turn over. Therefore, internal combustion engines will continue to be on the road beyond 2050.

Passenger car sensitivity analysis: What if global car sales achieved 100% battery-electric by 2035?

• The Global Outlook projects battery-electric vehicles to be ~25% of all new car sales by 2035 and ~35% by 2050 (excluding plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and Fuel Cell). Compare that to this sensitivity, which assumes 100% battery electric vehicle sales from 2035 onward, resulting in an almost fully electrified global car fleet by 2050.
• This 100% electric fleet would reduce global demand for oil back to the same levels they were in 2010. CO₂ emissions decrease ~4% versus the Global Outlook, with the decline in light-duty CO₂ emissions partially offset by emissions from increased power generation.

Heavy-duty truck sensitivity analysis: What if technology advances enabled faster transition to lower-emission freight solutions?

• This technology sensitivity evaluates nearly 100% electrification of light commercial vehicles, about 70% alternative fuels in medium commercial vehicles, and about 20% penetration of alternative fuels in long-haul commercial vehicles by 2050.
• This technology sensitivity results in 2050 liquids demand similar to current levels.
• Technology development to drive continued efficiency gains is also important. The upside sensitivity explores the impact of a potential fuel efficiency gains slow down at half (0.6% improvement per year) of historical trends (1.2% improvement per year), resulting in a 20% increase of heavy-duty fuel demand in 2050.

Industry

The industrial sector provides the goods and builds infrastructure underpinning global economic expansion.

• Industrial energy demand grows nearly 20% by 2050 as the sector produces the basic materials, such as steel, cement, and chemicals needed for modern living.
• The industrial sector also currently provides about a billion jobs for people who work to feed, clothe, shelter, and improve the lives of people around the world.

Oil, natural gas, and electricity contribute almost all the energy needed to replace coal and meet industrial energy growth to 2050.

• Oil and natural gas are important feedstocks used to make products as well as provide high heat for large industrial processes.
• Electrification is well suited for lower temperature or less energy intensive applications.

Consumer demand boosts the need for chemicals.

• Chemicals play a vital role in meeting our basic needs of food, clothing, shelter, and healthcare. For example, chemicals are used in fertilizers for agriculture, synthetic fibers for clothes, and building materials for modern structures.
• Asia Pacific’s chemicals production grows to meet the needs of its rising middle class.
• Naphtha (an oil product) remains the dominant feedstock in Asia, while North America and the Middle East rely on natural gas liquids and natural gas.

Transforming and decarbonizing the manufacturing industry will be challenging. It’s large and complex, and it takes large amounts of heat to make basic materials such as cement and steel.

• Our projection indicates more efforts will be required to further decarbonize industry to reduce emissions to the level of the IPCC Likely Below 2°C scenarios.
• Carbon capture and storage can provide a scalable solution to capture the emissions of both energy use and processing, for example from cement production.