Energy demand: Three drivers

Policy. Technology. Consumer preferences. All three impact how the world uses energy. Each driver influences the other. The interplay among these can vary depending on local circumstances (available resources, public support) and can change over time. At ExxonMobil, we’re continually studying energy demand and developing models that measure its potential impact — all in an effort to gain a deeper understanding of the interconnectivity of the global energy system.

Report Dec. 21, 2021

In this article

Energy demand: Three drivers

Three drivers of energy demand

Technology

Deploying new technology enables people to do more with less. Most successful technologies often have the supporting policy and commercial frameworks to achieve scale. A policy, like tax incentives, can spur development of new technology, but these technologies ultimately need to compete without subsidies to reach a large enough scale to impact global markets. Consumer preferences can also create a "pull effect" that increases demand in the marketplace for new technologies.

Policy

Sound government policy can stimulate new technology and influence consumer choices. For example, policies can encourage adoption of new technology (free parking for electric vehicles) or discourage the use of an existing technology (restrictions on coal-based power). The corollary is also true: policy not enabled by competitive technology or not aligned with consumer preferences can be difficult to implement because it is hard to mandate something that consumers believe is inferior to current options.

Consumer preferences

Demand for energy begins with the choices consumers make. These preferences can shift as new technology enables better options, such as lower costs and lower emissions. Consumer preferences can also be altered over time by policies that incentivize choices, like a carbon tax that encourages lower emissions electricity supply.

Global energy demand by sector

Primary energy – quadrillion BTUs
Image Global energy demand by sector

Energy demand led by non-OECD

Primary energy – quadrillion BTUs
Image Energy demand led by non-OECD
  • Global demand reaches about 660 quadrillion BTU in 2050, up ~15%  versus 2019, reflecting a growing population and rising prosperity.
  • Residential and commercial primary energy demand declines by ~10% to 2050 as efficiency improvements offset the energy needs of a growing population.
  • Electricity generation is the largest and among the fastest-growing sector, driven mainly by expanding access to reliable electricity in developing countries. Growing electrification is offset by efficiency improvement in the developed countries.
  • Industrial sector growth supports construction of buildings and infrastructure, and manufacturing of products that meet the needs of the world’s population.
  • Commercial transportation grows as expanding economies increase the need for movement of goods. Personal mobility also expands, but efficiency improvements and more electric vehicles offset the increase in vehicle miles traveled.
  • Global energy consumption continues to shift proportionally to developing economies where population and economic growth are both faster than the global average. Non-OECD share of global energy demand reaches ~70% in 2050.
  • Developing countries account for more than 100% of the global energy demand growth.
    Efficiency gains outpace economic growth in the OECD, which helps offset energy demand increases historically linked to economic expansion.
  • The combined share of energy used in the U.S. and European OECD nations declines from about 30% in 2019 to about 20% in 2050.
  • Oil continues to play a leading role in the world’s energy mix, with growing demand driven by commercial transportation and feedstocks for the chemicals industry.
  • Natural gas grows the most of any energy type, reaching almost 30% of all demand.
  • Renewables and nuclear see strong growth, contributing around 55% of incremental energy supplies to meet demand growth.
  • Coal use remains significant in parts of the developing world, but drops below 15% global share as China and OECD nations transition toward lower-emission sources like renewables, nuclear and natural gas.
  • Electricity, an energy carrier and not an energy source, grows approximately four times faster than overall energy demand.

Future energy mix has a large range of potential outcomes

Share(%) by fuel type within primary energy mix in 2050
Image Future energy mix has a large range of potential outcomes
Source: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer and Data, average of IPCC Lower 2°C scenarios, IEA WEO 2021
  • It is important to understand how the Outlook is developed, how Scenarios are developed, and how Outlook and Scenarios are used. Learn more about how we develop the Outlook and how we use scenarios
  • The IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario reflects current policy settings based on a sector-by-sector assessment of the specific policies that are in place, as well as those that have been announced by governments around the world. It offers a relevant scenario to compare and contrast with ExxonMobil’s Outlook. 
  • The IPCC Lower 2°C and the IEA Net Zero by 2050 scenario, are scenarios that are targeting more stringent climate goals, aligned with the Paris Agreement. 
  • There is a wide range of potential outcomes under the IPCC’s Lower 2°C scenarios, as many of the required technologies will require innovation and policy support to accelerate deployment. 
    • By 2050, the current sources all still play a role in the global energy mix:
    • Oil and gas remain important contributors to the energy system.
    • In most of the scenarios, coal use declines more than the Outlook projects.
    • While nuclear has the ability to provide energy at scale and with low emissions today, few scenarios project high growth.
    • Biomass can play an important role providing biofuels for transportation, and even providing negative emissions if CO₂ from the flue gases of power plants can be captured and stored.
    • Solar and wind would have to accelerate their buildout rates to be in line with the scenarios.
  • The IEA NZE by 2050 is an even more stringent pathway to reduce emissions than the average of the IPCC Lower 2°C scenarios.  It accelerates growth of lower-carbon solutions while also further reducing fossil sources.

Transportation

Commerce and trade drive transportation energy consumption up almost 25% by 2050.

Over the past few decades the movement of people and goods has grown dramatically, driven by vast growth in the purchasing power of individuals. Likewise, technology advancements have provided new and more efficient mobility options.

Global transportation demand is driven by differing trends for commercial transportation and light-duty passenger vehicles. As economic activity expands, especially in developing regions, commercial transportation is expected to grow. The majority of the growth comes from heavy-duty trucking as a result of goods movement, but increased aviation travel also plays a role as individual purchasing power expands.

Passenger vehicle ownership and travel is expected to increase as a result of the dramatic growth in the middle class and expanded urbanization. The fuel mix continues to evolve with more alternatives, like electric vehicles (BEV and PHEV).

In this Outlook, hypothetical sensitivities for light-duty demand showed that if by 2035 100% of all new car sales were Electric Vehicles  instead of 20%, liquids demand could fall to 2010 levels by 2050. Alternatively, a slowdown in fuel efficiency improvement of internal combustion engines, could increase fuel demand by almost 3 million barrels per day by 2050.

Transportation energy demand growth driven by commerce

Global sector demand – million oil-equivalent barrels per day (MBDOE)
Image Transportation energy demand growth driven by commerce
  • Global transportation-related energy demand is expected to grow by almost 25% from 2019 to 2050.
  • Personal vehicle ownership continues to grow as purchasing power rises; higher efficiency and more electric vehicles lead to a peak and decline in light-duty vehicle energy demand in the mid-2020s.
  • Commercial transportation (heavy-duty trucking, aviation, marine and rail) energy demand is led by growth in economic activity and personal buying power, which drives increasing trade of goods and services.
  • Aviation demand sees the highest annual growth rate at 1.8% from 2019 to 2050 due to rising economic activity as well as rapid growth of the middle class, specifically in emerging economies.

Light-duty fleet by type

Million vehicles

Image Light-duty fleet by type

Light-duty demand by fuel

MBDOE
Image Light-duty demand by fuel
  • Personal mobility rises with incomes, resulting in a growing demand for cars and motorcycles.
  • Motorcycles offer a lower-cost entry point to personal mobility, with ownership particularly high in Asia Pacific.
  • China and India lead the growth of car ownership, with larger growth in non-OECD countries.
  • In the OECD, while the number of cars per 1,000 people increases, the associated vehicle fuel demand declines by almost 45% by 2050.
  • In 2019, the global fleet was about 1.2 billion vehicles, with ~7 million (0.6%) of the fleet being plug-in hybrids, battery electric, or fuel cell.
  • By 2050, these advanced vehicles grow to ~40% of the fleet (~835 million) and more than 50% of new car sales, driven by decreasing battery costs, policies for tailpipe emissions, efficiency and reduced dependence for countries that must import oil.
  • Light-duty vehicle demand for internal combustion engine (ICE) fuels is projected to peak around 2025 and then decline to levels seen in the early-2000s by 2050.
  • The reduction in fuel demand, while driven in part by electrification, is mostly connected with efficiency gains across all vehicle types.

Light-duty fuels demand sensitivities

Image Light-duty fuels demand sensitivities
  • When calculating the reduction of CO2 emissions achieved by using electric vehicles rather than those with internal combustion engines, it is important to recognize the emissions associated with the incremental electricity required to power the EV.   
  • This light-duty vehicle sensitivity analysis helps assess the potential impact to light-duty liquids demand using alternate assumptions around electric vehicles penetration, changes in fuel efficiency or broader mobility trends.
  • In the Outlook, we project battery-electric vehicles to be 20% of all new car sales by 2035 and 35% by 2050. This sensitivity assumes 100% electric vehicle sales from 2035 onward, resulting in a fully electrified global car fleet by 2050. 
  • This 100% electric fleet would reduce global demand for oil (excluding biofuels) to the levels of the early 2010s. CO2 emissions decrease 4% versus the Outlook, with the decline in light-duty CO2 emissions partially offset by emissions from increased power generation.
  • In the Outlook projection towards 2050, the average annual fuel efficiency improvement is on average about double the rate of improvement as observed over the period 2000-2019. If the improvement rate slows down and is similar to historical levels, it could increase fuel demand by almost 3 million barrels per day by 2050.

Commercial transportation grows in all aspects

Commercial transportation energy demand – MBDOE
Image Commercial transportation grows in all aspects
  • Commercial transportation rises in all regions, with more than 80% of the growth in the non-OECD countries, driven by increases in population and GDP.
  • While all regions see some increased demand, Asia Pacific leads the growth, accounting for more than 40% of commercial transportation energy demand by 2050.
  • Continued improvements in efficiency will moderate the sector’s energy demand, which is historically associated with expanding economic activity.
  • All modes of commercial transportation grow from 2019 to 2050, with heavy-duty transportation growing the most and air transportation growing the fastest.
  • Electrification plays a role in certain applications (for example, short-haul trucks and buses), but is less suitable in heavy long-haul, and is unlikely to play a substantial role in international marine, and aviation that require higher energy storage to meet range requirements.
  • Hydrogen is expected to make inroads into commercial transportation as technology improves to lower its cost and policy develops to support the needed infrastructure development.
  • Natural gas (LNG on ships) and biofuels (sustainable aviation fuels) are expected to take a larger share than electricity.

Heavy-duty landscape

Heavy-duty transportation demand is driven by economic activity, which leads to increased commerce and movement of goods across oceans, nations, and cities. Fuel demand in this sector is influenced by the type of truck and its use, so understanding fleet dynamics and fuel usage is important for projecting future demand. For example, a light commercial vehicle (LCV) for intra-city deliveries has different energy needs versus a heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) for cross-country shipments of goods. Additionally truck fleets can be quite different from region to region based on the distribution of various sector and economic needs, such as heavy industry, manufacturing or resource extraction.

2015 Heavy-duty fleet/fuel usage mix

Image 2015 Heavy-duty fleet/fuel usage mix

Source: IEA The Future of Trucks 2017, EM analysis (2019)

  • Fleet breakdown and truck usage play a critical role in understanding the types of alternate fuels available for substitution in trucking.
  • In 2015, HCV long-haul trucks made up ~15% of the fleet, but used ~55% of the fuel for trucking driven by the heavy loads carried over long distances.

Heavy-duty sensitivity

  • We use sensitivity analyses to provide greater perspective on how changes to our base Outlook assumptions could affect the energy landscape. Our hypothetical sensitivities explore different fuel efficiency trends in a higher demand case as well as deep penetration of alternatives, such as electricity, biofuels, gas and hydrogen in a lower demand case.

Heavy-duty fuels demand sensitivities

World – MBDOE
Image Heavy-duty fuels demand sensitivities
Source: 2019 Energy Outlook

Liquids demand sensitivities by sector

World – MBDOE
Image Liquids demand sensitivities by sector

Source: 2019 Energy Outlook

  • The 2019 Outlook assumes that future efficiency improves on average at double the historical rate from 2000 - 2016, and that alternative fuels grow to ~13% of demand
  • In comparison, the high demand sensitivity above assumes future efficiency improves only at the historical rate, which could increase demand ~30% versus the 2019 Outlook, and highlights the need for continued technology investments in efficiency improvements.
  • The low demand sensitivity assumes a deeper penetration of alternative fuels with accompanying efficiency gains. The penetration assumptions vary by truck type and usages. LCVs see nearly 100% penetration of Electric Vehicles due to shorter, start/stop routes, MCVs see 70% alternative fuels, and HCVs see ~20% alternatives, mostly biofuels due to the need for high energy density fuels in long-haul trucks. This sensitivity would require a rapid acceleration in the early 2020s of both alternate fuels into the heavy-duty fleet as well as infrastructure build-out to support the alternatives. The resulting fuel penetration is approximately three times the 2019 Outlook in 2040, with traditional fuel demand peaking prior to 2025 before declining to mid-2000s levels.
  • The impact on total liquids demand from the high sensitivity shows liquids demand could be ~7% above the 2019 Outlook, while in the low demand sensitivity total liquids demand could peak in the mid-2030s as growth in chemicals, aviation and marine are offset by the heavy-duty decline.
  • These hypothetical sensitivities highlight the difficulty of decarbonizing heavy-duty transportation and the need for further technology development on economic, lower-emission solutions.

Transportation energy demand: Bridge to lower 2°C

World - quadrillion BTUs
Image Transportation energy demand: Bridge to lower2°C
  • The Outlook projects that by 2050, plug-in hybrids, battery electric and fuel cells will grow to ~40% of the fleet (~835 million) and more than 50% of new car sales, driven by decreasing battery costs, policies to reduce tailpipe emissions, efficiency improvements, and reduced energy dependence for oil importing countries.
  • The need for energy-dense fuels makes commercial transportation harder to electrify. The annual growth rate from 2019 to 2050 of electricity across transportation in the Outlook is comparable to the annual growth within the IPCC Lower 2°C scenarios over a similar interval.
  • Oil demand is lower in the IPCC scenarios reflecting assumptions for fuel switching and increased vehicle efficiency.  Assuming the underlying transportation activity is similar to the Outlook, the fuel efficiency in the average of the IPCC Lower 2°C scenarios would be ~20% higher in 2050.
  • Biofuels can play a key role, which would require substantial scale-up of biomass feedstock production and conversion of refineries to bio-refineries. To bridge from the Outlook to a biomass demand in line with the average of the Lower 2°C scenarios by 2050, the annual growth rate would need to be more than double.  By 2050, this would mean that biofuels are 4.5 times today’s demand, compared to the Outlook’s projection of 2.5 times.
  • Hydrogen, or hydrogen-based fuels such as ammonia, could also become part of the solution set for transportation with substantial scale-up of hydrogen.

 

Residential and commercial

As populations grow and prosperity rises, more energy will be needed to power homes, offices, schools, shopping centers and hospitals.

Combined residential and commercial energy demand is projected to rise by around 15% through 2050. Led by the growing economies of non-OECD nations, average worldwide household electricity use will rise about 30% between 2019 and 2050.

Energy efficiency plays a big role in constraining energy demand growth within the residential and commercial sectors as modern appliances, advanced materials and policies shape the future.

Demand shifts to non-OECD with growth primarily supplied by electricity

Image Demand shifts to non-OECD with growth primarily supplied by electricity
  • In addition to the energy people need to heat or cool their homes and keep appliances running, this sector also includes the energy required in hospitals, schools, grocery stores, retail shops, offices, sports facilities and cultural centers.
  • With rising prosperity and expanding commercial activity comes an increased demand for lighting, heating, cooling and power in homes and offices of more than 15% by 2050.
  • Strong middle-class growth in non-OECD nations increases energy demand by almost 40%.  Improving building efficiencies reduce energy demand in OECD countries by almost 15% by 2050.
  • Globally, electricity demand rises by 1.8% per year, growing to almost 50% of this sector by 2050, as traditional biomass, coal and oil demand decline.

Industrial

Almost half of the world’s energy use is dedicated to industrial activity

As the global middle class continues to grow, demand for durable products, appliances and consumable goods will increase. Without exception, industrial activities are required to manufacture these products and their components. Industrial activities, such as textile manufacture, car assembly or creation of construction materials, take place in almost all regions, and for all this activity energy is required.

Industry grows in emerging markets, like India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Industry also evolves in OECD nations as businesses and consumers strive to reduce their environmental impact by using energy more efficiently.

Industrial growth takes energy. It also takes innovation. This Outlook anticipates technology advances, as well as the increasing shift toward cleaner sources of energy such as electricity and natural gas. The industry of the future will be more energy efficient and less carbon intensive than it is today.

Historical perspective on industrial product demand

Industrial product demand - growth indexed to 1990
Image Historical perspective on industrial product demand

Demand for industrial products has seen enormous growth in the past decades. Efficiency gains have kept energy demand from rising as fast as production, and the 
resulting emissions per unit of primary energy used (excluding emissions associated with the electricity used) by the industry have stayed fairly flat.

This growing product demand trend is expected to continue as more of the world’s people advance to the middle class and gain access to products essential for modern living.  Addressing CO2 emissions coming from the energy use in industry will be key. Switching to lower-carbon fuels, such as natural gas and hydrogen, electrification and CCS will be crucial.

  • PLASTICS are used in medical supplies, cleaning products, electric vehicles, and many household goods.
  • CEMENT is needed for construction of dams (hydropower), construction of energy-efficient buildings, etc. 
  • ALUMINUM is used in power grids and construction as well as in the making of vehicles. 
  • STEEL is used for large-scale construction, shipping containers, trains and ships.

Industrial sector energy supports economic progress

World – quadrillion BTUs
Image Industrial sector energy supports economic progress

Heavy industry transitions toward cleaner fuels

2019-2050 change in quadrillion BTUs
Image Heavy industry transitions toward cleaner fuels
  • The industrial sector provides more than a billion jobs for people who work to feed, clothe, shelter and improve the lives of people around the world.
  • Rising population and prosperity trigger demand for modern cities, medical equipment, mobility and home appliances that underpin the need for steel, cement and chemicals.
  • In 2019, the industrial sector used about half the world’s electricity and nearly as much primary energy as the transportation and residential/commercial sectors combined.
  • Increased options for consumers to ‘reduce, reuse, recycle’ and manufacturers’ efforts to improve industrial processes and efficiency can conserve fuel and mitigate emissions. 
  • Heavy industry (steel, cement, metals and manufacturing) and chemicals (plastics, fertilizer and other chemical products) are expected to account for nearly all of the growth to 2050.

Oil, gas and electricity fuel industrial growth

World – quadrillion BTUs
Image Oil, gas and electricity fuel industrial growth
  • Industry uses energy products both as a fuel and as a feedstock for chemicals, asphalt lubricants, waxes and other specialty products.
  • Oil, natural gas and electricity contribute almost all the energy needed to replace coal and meet the industrial energy growth to 2050.
  • Oil grows because it is particularly well suited as a feedstock; companies choose natural gas and electricity for their versatility, convenience and lower direct emissions.
  • Coal use declines as nations and businesses strive to reduce their environmental impact; it is expected to keep playing a role in steel and cement manufacturing.
  • Shifting to lower-carbon fuels reduces the industrial sector’s 2050 direct emissions by 15% versus 2019 even as primary energy demand increases by 10%.

Heavy industry energy intensity improves

Thousand BTUs per dollar of GDP
Image Heavy industry energy intensity improves
  • Heavy industry energy intensity measures the amount of energy used in heavy industry and manufacturing per dollar of overall economic activity (GDP).
  • Producing more value with less energy has a positive impact – economically and environmentally – for manufacturing companies and countries.
  • OECD nations have lower energy intensity thanks to their service-based economies and predominance of higher-value, energy-efficient industries.
  • China's intensity, which spiked as it invested in infrastructure and heavy industry, has been improving rapidly as its economy matures and efficiency increases.
  • Optimizing energy use via advances in technology, processes and logistics can help companies remain competitive and contribute to gains in global energy intensity.

Consumer demand boosts chemicals energy growth

Quadrillion BTUs
Image Consumer demand boosts chemicals energy growth
  • Chemicals are the building blocks for thousands of products that people rely on every day. Demand for fertilizer, cosmetics, textiles and plastics grows through 2050 as people’s rising living standards enable them to buy more medical devices, food, cars, computers and home goods.
  • Asia Pacific’s chemicals production grows to meet the needs of its rising middle class.
  • Producers in the U.S. and Middle East chemicals production tap abundant, affordable energy supplies (used as feedstock and fuel) to gain competitive advantage.
  • Europe, Russia, South Korea and Japan remain important contributors to global chemicals production.

Chemicals production relies on oil and natural gas

World – quadrillion BTUs
Image Chemicals production relies on oil and natural gas
  • The chemical industry uses hydrocarbon products as both a feedstock and a fuel.
  • Naphtha and natural gas liquids are primarily used as feedstock; natural gas is used as both a feedstock (notably for fertilizer) and a fuel.
  • Natural gas liquids use grows by more than 80% from 2019 to 2050, as unconventional oil and natural gas production in the U.S. expands supply.
  • Naphtha is expected to remain the dominant feedstock in Asia; the Middle East is expected to rely on natural gas liquids and natural gas.
  • Advances in plastic materials and chemical processes can save energy as the industry continues to meet rising consumer demand for high-performing products.

Industrial energy demand: Bridge to lower 2°C

World - quadrillion BTUs
Image Industrial energy demand: Bridge to lower 2°C
For comparability with IPCC Lower 2C, EO industrial demand is restated to include fuel but exclude feedstocks, notably Naphtha and LPG in the chemicals sector
  • Transforming and decarbonizing the manufacturing industry will be challenging, due to the complexity and scale of the industry, as well as the need for large amounts of heat to make basic materials such as cement and steel.
  • Our projections indicate more efforts will be required to further decarbonize the industry to reduce emissions to the level of the IPCC Lower 2°C scenarios.
  • Switching from coal to lower-carbon fuels is a theme in both the Outlook and the IPCC Lower 2°C scenarios. Natural gas and hydrogen are well-placed to reduce the emissions from coal use. 
  • Electrification will need to be made available for even higher-temperature industrial processes, requiring further research into the materials used for equipment that can accommodate these new production techniques.
  • Carbon capture and storage can provide a scalable solution to capture the emissions of both energy use and processing, for example from cement production. Large industrial clusters could benefit from combining captured CO2 streams to increase the efficiency of the storage. 

Electricity and power generation

Global electricity demand rises more than 70%

Electricity demand is expected to grow around the globe, supplied primarily by growth in wind, solar, natural gas-fired generation, and nuclear. Besides meeting residential, commercial, and industrial demand, the increase in electricity demand is also fueled by the growth of electric vehicles in light-duty transportation. Cost reductions in transportation batteries are being leveraged for other applications including larger-scale electricity storage.

Today, batteries represent a small share of installed capacity on the grid, and are used for short-duration storage. The increased variable production from weather-dependent wind and solar triggers additional transmission build-out, storage and flexible gas peaking generation but results in reduced asset efficiency. Further breakthroughs that provide new solutions deployable at commercial scale to maintain reliable and affordable electricity for consumers are needed.

Electricity generation highlights regional diversity

Net delivered electricity – thousand TWh
Image Electricity generation highlights regional diversity
  • The mix of electricity generation varies geographically based on factors including technology costs, domestic resource availability and policy targets (for example, renewable portfolio standards for local generation).
  • Much of the world continues to shift further to lower-emission sources for electricity generation, led by wind and solar, natural gas and nuclear, based on local opportunities and policies.
  • In 2019, coal-fired generation was the leading source of electricity (accounting for more than 45% in developing countries). China’s coal-fired electricity is forecast to fall by almost half through 2050, replaced primarily by a combination of wind, nuclear, natural gas, and solar. 
  • The share of electricity use in transportation is expected to grow from today’s low levels with increasing penetration of electric vehicles as a result of emissions/fuel economy targets and cheaper batteries.

Renewables and natural gas dominate growth

Global growth 2019-2050 – thousand TWh (net delivered)
Image Renewables and natural gas dominate growth

Renewables penetration increases across all regions

Wind/Solar share of delivered electricity – % share of TWh
Image Renewables penetration increases across all regions
  • Wind and solar generation grow the most to 2050, supported by technology cost reductions (particularly for solar) and policies targeting lower CO2 emissions.
  • Natural gas grows both in and out of the OECD countries. OECD growth comes from coal-to-gas switching, and half of the non-OECD growth is in gas-producing Middle East and Africa.
  • A majority of new nuclear generation is built in China. OECD demand is projected to decline as some countries phase out nuclear generation.
  • Coal-fired generation drops from 45% to 20% share by 2050 in the non-OECD countries, and from 20% to 2% in the OECD as the world aims to reduce its emissions.
  • Wind and solar grow across the globe, but penetration in 2050 varies based on natural resource quality and levels of policy support. Globally, wind and solar’s share of delivered electricity grows, from 6% in 2019 to almost 35% in 2050.
  • In 2050, wind and solar are expected to deliver around 40% or more of electricity in Europe and North America, contributing to renewables policy goals.
  • Renewables growth in Asia Pacific contributes to local air quality improvements and energy security goals.
  • Up to 20-30% wind and solar penetration can be achieved without significant additional costs to the power grid.  Higher penetration levels incur additional costs to manage intermittency through flexible backup generation, transmission buildout and storage to ensure reliable electricity delivery.

Different policy or technology choices can impact gas demand

Global natural gas demand sensitivity – BCFD
Image Different policy or technology choices can impact gas demand
  • Lower-cost wind and solar with efficient storage could increase penetration to 50% of supply. Ratable reductions in both coal and natural gas by region would reduce global natural gas demand by about 100 billion cubic feet per day.
  • Decline in coal-fired generation occurs predominantly in developed countries out to 2050. Switching 50% of the remaining coal to natural gas would increase natural gas demand by about 15%.

The Outlook team monitors movements in technology, markets and policy to  identify signposts making certain outcomes more or less likely. 

Power Generation: Bridge to Lower 2°C

World - quadrillion BTUs
Image Power Generation: Bridge to Lower 2°C
  • Given the high degree of electrification of end-use across the IPCC Lower 2°C scenarios by 2050, these scenarios on average require about twice the energy input to produce the required electricity versus today.
  • To attain the level of renewables envisioned in the scenarios, much faster deployment of solar and wind versus recent years would be required . Solar would be required to deploy at 7.5 times the recent historic rate over the next three decades, and wind at about 3.5 times the recent rate. The Outlook assumes solar and wind will be deployed at about twice the historic rate, considering available policy support and reduced effectiveness areas with lower resource quality.
  • Bioenergy would grow 5 times today’s energy demand under the IPCC Lower 2°C scenarios, although it would still be a minor contributor. The increased biomass production would require a step-up in agriculture activity and corresponding logistics. When combined with carbon capture and storage, biomass provides a route to negative CO2 emissions.
  • Nuclear significantly increases its contribution to power generation in the IPCC scenarios, to a level almost double what the Outlook assumes by 2050.
  • The Outlook forecasts a 30% decline in electricity supplied by coal from 2019 levels; the IPCC scenarios call for a reduction of 70%.
  • The role of natural gas would expand by almost 75% in the Outlook projection. In the IPCC scenarios, it falls by 10%.

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Policy. Technology. Consumer preferences. All three impact how the world uses energy. Each driver influences the other. The interplay among these can vary depending on local circumstances (available resources, public support) and can change over time. At ExxonMobil, we’re continually studying energy demand and developing models that measure its potential impact — all in an effort to gain a deeper understanding of the interconnectivity of the global energy system.

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