The power of Two in understanding the future

There’s a small number everyone should know: Two. Yes, two.

Turns out it’s a much bigger number than at first blush. “Two” helps explain the profound changes our world is likely to see over the next several decades. And make no mistake, the world is going to look very different by the time the calendar flips to the year 2050.

I say this by way of introduction for ExxonMobil’s most recent Global Outlook, which we published today. It’s our company’s most up-to-date view of energy demand and supply through 2050.

A team of in-house analysts, engineers, and economists put together the Global Outlook. They looked at growth trends, technology developments, and government policies to project how global markets are likely to evolve over time.

Take the entire global economy – and add another one

So back to the importance of the number two.

“Two” represents each of the foundational insights of our Global Outlook – one having to do with the world’s population, and the other with the growth of the global economy:

• By 2050, we project global population will rise by 2 billion – a 25% increase – up to 10 billion people.
• At the same time, we project the global economy will be more than 2X larger than it is today.

What unites these insights is simple: energy. As our Executive Summary notes, “Energy use and economic development are inseparable. Where there is energy poverty, there is poverty. And where energy availability rises, living standards rise as well.”

The extraordinary developments our Outlook projects over the next several decades demonstrate the power of “two” – a far more prosperous world for a far larger number of people than today.

The many ways the future will differ from today.

In truth, of course, the Outlook offers far more than just two insights about how we see the next several decades unfolding.

Here are few more projections:

The Outlook also notes that while the 25% expected drop in CO2 emissions is substantial, much more will be needed to reach society’s emission-reduction goals. This means the world needs to dramatically scale up lower-emission solutions like carbon capture and storage, hydrogen and biofuels.

These critical technologies will require government policy support, significant advances in technology, and ultimately the development of a “carbon economy” where society pays for carbon reductions.

We don’t have a crystal ball at ExxonMobil. But, as a company that has been meeting the evolving needs of society for the past century and a half, we do have a good sense of where the world could be headed.

The people behind the numbers

A final thought: Despite the charts, the graphs, and the reams of data, the Global Outlook isn’t an academic exercise.

In the end, it’s not about numbers. It’s about people.

That’s what the data represent: real people, living real lives, each with their own hopes and aspirations for a better future.

The most dramatic implications of the doubling of global GDP by 2050 are reserved for those who live in so-called developing nations, non-OECD countries such as India, China, Ethiopia, Niger, and many others in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

The story of the next few decades will be their story

Virtually all of the expected growth in global economic output will take place in their home nations, where an astounding number of people are expected to rise from poverty into the global middle class.

In the coming weeks, we plan to highlight several such stories here on exxonmobil.com – profiles of some of our employees who have grabbed hold and climbed the rungs of the economic ladder thanks in large measure to modern, reliable, affordable energy.

I hope you’ll join us as we explore their journeys.

Chris Birdsall is director of economics and energy for Corporate Strategic Planning at ExxonMobil.