4 min read
• Aug. 26, 2024Energy transition progress
- By 2030, carbon emissions are projected to fall for the first time as economic activity expands.
- Hard-to-decarbonize commercial transportation and industrial activity will account for nearly half of the world’s emissions in 2050.
- Reducing emissions to achieve a below 2°C pathway will require supportive policy, technology innovation, and market incentives to drive faster deployment of all available solutions.
4 min read
• Aug. 26, 20242050 insights
- By 2030, carbon emissions are projected to fall for the first time, while economic activity and prosperity continue to expand, driven by greater energy efficiency, increased renewables, and lower-emission technologies.
- But more progress is needed as the world is not yet on track for the Paris Agreement. Reducing emissions to achieve a below 2°C pathway will require supportive policy, technology innovation, and market incentives to drive faster deployment of all available solutions.
- Hard-to-decarbonize commercial transportation and industrial activity will account for nearly half of the world’s emissions in 2050. Abatement in these sectors will require technologies such as carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, and biofuels.
- Efficiency will play an essential role in reducing the carbon intensity of the global economy.
Global energy-related emissions
CO2 Billion metric tons
![Image Global energy-related emissions](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/2024gocharts-energytransitionprogress-v2-01.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
IPCC C3: "Likely Below 2°C" scenarios.
Emissions do not contain industry process emissions or land use and natural sinks.
Different assumptions about how the world will continue to evolve produce dramatically different paths to 2050.
- Projections such as the Global Outlook start with current factors including public policy and commercially available technology, and then evaluate how they might change over time.
- In contrast, scenarios such as the IPCC Likely Below 2°C start with a hypothetical outcome and work backward to identify the factors that need to occur to achieve that outcome.
Energy-related emissions
CO2 Billion metric tons
![Image Energy-related emissions](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/2024gocharts-energytransitionprogress-v2-02.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
IPCC C3: "Likely Below 2°C" scenarios; ExxonMobil analysis.
Emissions do not contain industry process emissions or land use and natural sinks.
By 2050, energy related emissions are projected to decline by 25%, but more is needed to achieve a below 2°C pathway.
- Commercial transportation and industrial activity account for nearly half of the world’s emissions in 2050.
- A rapid scaling of emerging technologies such as carbon capture and storage, along with continued deployment of solar and other renewables will be required.
Growth of lower-carbon solutions between 2020 and 2050 in IPCC Likely Below 2°C scenarios
![Image Growth of lower-carbon solutions between 2020 and 2050 in IPCC Likely Below 2°C scenarios](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/energy-transition-progress/2024gocharts-energytransitionprogress-v2-03.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Carbon capture and storage
CO2 Billion metric tons per year
![Image Carbon capture and storage](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/2024gocharts-energytransitionprogress-v2-04.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Hydrogen-based fuel use
Quadrillion Btu
![Image Hydrogen-based fuel use](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/2024gocharts-energytransitionprogress-v2-05.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Biofuels use
Million barrels per day of oil equivalent
![Image Biofuels use](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/2024gocharts-energytransitionprogress-v2-06.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, and biofuels are essential solutions for hard-to-decarbonize sectors.
- Unlike personal transportation, electrification is ill-suited for commercial transport, such as long-haul trucks or aviation. Similarly, industrial applications require intense heat and hydrocarbon-based feedstocks that cannot be solely met with electrification.
Signposts this decade for the evolving energy transition
![Image Signposts this decade for the evolving energy transition](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/2024gocharts-energytransitionprogress-v4-07.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
(see reference list)
While progress is being made, deployment this decade is not yet on track to achieve a below 2°C pathway.
- Deployment trends this decade provide essential insights on an energy transition.
- Hydrogen and carbon capture and storage need to rapidly deploy to achieve 2030 government pledges.
Reducing emissions requires ALL viable technology
![Image Reducing emissions requires ALL viable technology](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/energy-transition-progress/2024gocharts-energytransitionprogress-v2-08.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
IPCC C3: "Likely Below 2°C" scenarios.
*EVs includes light duty battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell electric vehicles.
Scenarios agree*: reducing emissions will require deployment of ALL available technologies.
- From 2019 to today, the most progress has been made in solar and wind deployment, EV sales, and biofuels, whereas to-date, carbon capture and storage and hydrogen have yet to show meaningful progress at the global scale.
- There is a range of potential outcomes for each solution to 2030, but one message is clear: All solutions need to increase deployment this decade. This is the case for our Global Outlook, IEA STEPS, IEA APS, IEA NZE, and the IPCC Likely Below 2°C scenarios.
*”scenarios” refers to IPCC Likely Below 2°C and IEA STEPS, APS, and NZE from ’23 World Energy Outlook.
Efficiency is critical to reducing emissions with growing GDP
Energy-related CO2 emissions
Billion tonnes
![Image Efficiency is critical to reducing emissions with growing GDP](/-/media/global/charts/global-outlook/2024/2024gocharts-energytransitionprogress-v2-09.png?usecustomfunctions=1¢ercrop=1 )
Continued efficiency improvements and lower-emission solutions are critical to reducing emissions while expanding economic prosperity for a growing population.
- The primary drivers for increasing global CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2023 were population and economic growth.
- Improving energy efficiency (energy use per unit of GDP) helped slow the growth in emissions, while global CO2 intensity of energy use remained fairly constant in history. Increased coal use in some non-OECD countries offset emission reductions in the OECD countries.
- As the world’s economy doubles by 2050, technology will be essential to mitigate emissions. The Global Outlook projects continued energy efficiency gains and a sustained improvement of CO2 intensity with more lower-emissions solutions such as solar, wind, nuclear, coal-to-gas switching, carbon capture and storage.
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Cautionary statement
The Global Outlook includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates of both historical levels and projections of challenging topics such as energy demand, supply, and trends through 2050 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from many external sources including the International Energy Agency. Separate from ExxonMobil’s analysis, we discuss a number of third-party scenarios such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Likely Below 2°C and the International Energy Agency scenarios. Third-party scenarios discussed in this report reflect the modeling assumptions and outputs of their respective authors, not ExxonMobil, and their use and inclusion herein is not an endorsement by ExxonMobil of their results, likelihood or probability. Work on the Outlook and report was conducted during 2023 and 2024. The report contains forward looking statements, including projections, targets, expectations, estimates and assumptions of future behaviors. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the growth of energy demand and supply, the impact of new technologies, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy, emissions and plans to reduce emissions) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, the ability to scale new technologies on a cost-effective basis, unexpected technological developments, the development of new supply sources, changes in law or government policy, political events, demographic changes and migration patterns, trade patterns, the development and enforcement of global, regional or national mandates, changes in consumer preferences, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. The Outlook was published in August 2024. ExxonMobil assumes no duty to update these statements or materials as of any future date, and neither future distribution of this material nor the continued availability of this material in archive form on our website should be deemed to constitute an update or re-affirmation of this material as of any future date. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.