Using the growth rates from the Assessed 2oC Scenarios and a standard baseline for 2010 demand, oil demand is estimated to decline on average from about 95 million barrels per day in 2016 to about 78 million barrels per day in 2040. Estimated demand based on the low and high growth rates ranges from about 53 to 103 million barrels per day in 2040.
Using the same approach for natural gas, demand is estimated to increase on average to about 445 billion cubic feet per day in 2040. Based on the low and high end growth rates, estimated demands ranges from about 265 to 625 billion cubic feet per day in 2040.
Significant investments will be needed in the upstream sector to meet global demand for oil and natural gas. This reflects the fact that natural declines in production from existing fields are higher than a decline in demand, such as is envisioned for oil on average in the Assessed 2oC Scenarios. A large portion of the investments would be needed simply to compensate for the declines at existing fields.
The International Energy Agency, in its New Policies Scenario, estimates cumulative oil and natural gas investment may reach approximately $21 trillion between 2017 and 2040, including about $15 trillion in the upstream sector, with about $10 trillion in the upstream oil sector.