The review of the Assessed 2oC Scenarios relative to the 2018 Outlook suggest several key takeaways:
- To quickly reduce global GHG emissions (including CO2) toward a 2oC pathway, much more stringent policy interventions, with restrictive impacts on economic and human activities, will be needed.
- Reducing the CO2 emissions intensity of the world’s energy mix remains challenging; the Assessed 2oC Scenarios generally include significant reductions in coal and growing utilization of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies for coal, natural gas and bioenergy. The cost-effective availability and deployment of many different technologies is likely to be critical to ensure reliable, affordable energy while also moving toward a 2oC pathway.
- To close the gap, and barring a reduction in projected GDP, much faster improvements in energy intensity and/or CO2 emissions intensity are required to achieve a 2oC pathway. As the chart above illustrates, the Assessed 2oC Scenarios suggest that predicting absolute 2040 energy demand levels in total and by energy type carries significant uncertainty, and further suggest that scenario outcomes may be heavily influenced by technology and policy assumptions.