Emissions

• Policy choices, consumer preferences and technology play a role in balancing energy supply and demand and the effects on emissions.
• From 2000 to 2021, the economic expansion in Asia Pacific saw CO₂ emissions substantially rise, only partially offset by reductions in Europe and North America.
• Global annual energy-related CO₂ emissions are likely to peak this decade, as countries try to reduce the emissions intensity of their economies.
• A shift to less carbon-intensive sources of electricity (for example, renewables, nuclear and natural gas) will reduce the CO₂ intensity of delivered electricity in 2050 by about 65% compared to 2021.
• Efficiency gains and growing use of less carbon-intensive energy will help reduce industrial CO₂ emissions relative to GDP by about 65% over the Outlook period.
• Transportation represents about 25% of CO₂ emissions today, and this share is likely to grow modestly by 2050, driven by expanding commercial transportation activity.
• Global light-duty vehicle CO₂ emissions are expected to peak in the mid-2020s before falling by 35% by 2050, as conventional vehicles continue to become more efficient and electric cars gain significant share.

• The primary driver of increasing global CO₂ emissions between 2000 and 2021 was economic growth, as global GDP expanded about 80%.
• Improving energy efficiency (energy use per unit of GDP) helped slow the growth in emissions, while global CO₂ intensity of energy use remained fairly constant, with increased coal use in some non-OECD countries offsetting emission reductions in the OECD countries.
• As the world’s economy more than doubles by 2050, technology will be essential to mitigate emissions. The Outlook projects a sustained improvement of CO₂ intensity (more solar, wind, nuclear, coal to gas switch, carbon capture and storage) in addition to accelerated efficiency gains.
• By 2050, efficiency and emissions intensity reduction are expected to contribute to a ~65% decline in the carbon intensity of the global economy.

• The Global Outlook projects energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2050 almost 25% below 2021. The average of the IPCC Likely Below 2°C scenarios would require a reduction of about 70%.
• More electrification and renewables can address only part of the problem. Additional lower-emission solutions are required under Likely Below 2°C scenarios. For all these lower-emission solutions, a clear acceleration in deployment is required. The largest rate of acceleration needed, up to 185 times the recently observed rate of deployment, is in carbon capture and storage.
• The Outlook assumes continued progress in costs of technology and policy support in its projection of lower-emission solutions deployment. Monitoring the role of deployment of these solutions provides useful signposts on the pace of the transition..

Low carbon solutions

Having a suite of lower-carbon technologies for hard-to-decarbonize sectors is important. They have a critical role to play in the energy transition, with multiple options required to meet differing needs. Biofuels, Hydrogen-based fuels and carbon capture and storage are three key lower-carbon solutions needed in addition to Wind and Solar.  Pace of deployment for each of these technologies will be driven by policy support, technology improvements and supporting infrastructure development.

• Carbon capture and storage is the process of capturing CO₂ emission at the source and injecting them into deep underground geologic formations for safe, secure and permanent storage.
• Carbon capture and storage on its own, or in combination with hydrogen production, is among the few proven technologies that could enable CO₂ emissions from high-emitting and hard to decarbonize sectors such as power generation and heavy industries, including manufacturing, refining and petrochemicals.

• Low-carbon hydrogen will be a key enabler replacing traditional furnace fuel to decarbonize the industrial sector.
• Hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels like ammonia are also expected to make inroads into commercial transportation as technology improves to lower costs and policy develops to support the needed infrastructure development.

• Along with electrification, biofuels is expected to play an important role in decarbonization of the transportation space, growing by over four-fold from 2021 to 2050.
• For aviation in particular, biofuels is expected to be the primary transition fuel as other options such as battery-electric are not as viable as they are with road transportation.