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Liquids demand trajectory uncertain but resilient

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Liquids demand trajectory uncertain but resilient

  • Sensitivities help assess potential impacts to light-duty liquids demand using alternate assumptions around electric vehicle penetration, changes in fuel efficiency or broader mobility trends
  • For every additional 100 million electric vehicles on the road in 2040, liquids demand could fall by ~1.2 million barrels per day; if the entire light-duty fleet is electrified in 2040, total liquids demand could be approximately the same as in 2013
  • Alternatively, recent consumer preferences have slowed the increase in fuel efficiency of new vehicle sales in both the OECD and non-OECD
  • While the Outlook forecasts new car fuel efficiency trends will be well aligned with government policies, a continuation of recent trends in consumer preferences could add more than 2 million barrels per day of liquids demand by 2040
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