This growth in gross domestic product (GDP) means improved quality of life for billions of people.
Since new gas-fired power plants are likely to generate about 50 percent fewer CO2 emissions than new coal-fired plants, we expect gas-fired CCS plants will provide lower-cost electricity than coal-fired CCS plants.
Even by 2040, the Asia Pacific region’s per capita electricity usage will likely only be about one-third of North America’s level. Electricity use per capita in China is expected to be about half that of the United States, while India is expected to be about 15 percent that of the United States in 2040.
Electricity is expected to capture a significant share of the overall growth in final energy needs in the residential/commercial and industrial sectors, continuing a trend of the last 20 years.
Improved living standards are one reason for this projected growth in electricity demand. Urbanization and rising incomes lead to increases in household and industrial electricity consumption, including wider penetration of electronics, appliances and other modern conveniences.
Since energy use is pervasive in every aspect of life around the world, and since policies to address GHG – and more specifically CO2 – emissions will tend to raise the cost of energy and related activities, many countries are taking care in structuring both the nature and the pace of GHG policy initiatives.
Looking ahead to 2040, we anticipate non-OECD nations will continue to improve the energy-efficiency of their economies, but also shift toward less carbon-intensive energy sources.
Over the Outlook period, we see several major trends in energy supplies.
Maintaining a robust global energy marketplace is critical to meeting rising global energy demand.
Even with significant efficiency gains, global energy demand is projected to rise by about 35 percent from 2010 to 2040.
From 2010 to 2040, the world’s population is projected to rise from 7 billion to nearly 9 billion, and the global economy will more than double. Over that same period, global energy demand is likely to rise by about 35 percent.
As we have seen in developed economies over the previous century, one important fundamental of energy demand is the migration of populations from rural to urban areas.
Globally, residential energy intensity is projected to fall by about 15 percent over the Outlook period as homes become better insulated and make greater use of energy-saving lighting and appliances.
Over the coming decades, energy sources will continue to evolve and diversify, driven by changes in technology, consumer needs, and public policies. But liquid supplies — primarily crude oil — are projected to remain the single biggest source of energy and vital to transportation.
In 2010, about 75 percent of the world’s vehicles were in OECD countries. However, looking ahead, about 80 percent of the growth in the global fleet will come from non-OECD countries.
Through 2040, there are likely to be significant changes in the types of energy used in the industrial sector.
Global industrial energy demand is projected to rise by one-third through 2030, with almost all of the growth concentrated in non-OECD countries. Global demand then flattens, however, as rising demand in India and other leading growth countries is offset by a major development in the industrial sector: declining industrial demand in China post...
Industrial demand for energy is a function of production activity – such as the manufacturing of steel, automobiles and chemicals – and energy intensity, or the amount of energy needed to produce each unit of output.
The energy industry itself accounted for about 20 percent of industrial energy demand in 2010, but its share is declining as the industry continues to improve efficiency.
This unprecedented improvement in global fuel economy is expected to reflect a surge in hybrid vehicle sales. Hybrids, which combine an internal combustion engine and an electric motor, are expected to account for about half of global new-car sales by 2040, as they become increasingly cost-competitive compared to conventional vehicles.
By 2040, emerging supplies will account for more than 40 percent of global liquids supply, as technology enables increased development of these resources.
As conventional production declines, more of the world's oil demand will be met by emerging sources that only recently became available in significant quantities - oil sands, tight oil, deepwater, NGLs and biofuels.
North America will lead unconventional gas production, accounting for more than half the growth through most of the Outlook period.
By 2040, demand for natural gas in the power generation sector is expected to rise by close to 80 percent.
Overall, international trade of natural gas in 2040 is expected to be 2.5 times the 2010 level, growing from about 15 percent of gas demand in 2010 to 25 percent by 2040.
Natural gas will continue to play an increasingly important role in meeting global energy needs.
North America will see a dramatic rise in technology enabled supplies. Canada, for example, is expected to see more than 200 percent growth in oil sands production from 2010 through 2040.
Unconventional gas — including shale gas, tight gas and coalbed methane — accounts for about 40 percent of the world’s remaining recoverable gas resource, according to IEA estimates.
The largest driver in commercial transportation energy demand will come from heavy-duty vehicles such as trucks and buses. Demand for fuel for heavy-duty vehicles is projected to rise by about 70 percent, and account for about 60 percent of the total increase. In fact, by 2040, the world will be using about the same amount of energy in heavy-duty...
The residential/commercial sector is a growing contributor to electricity demand, ultimately leading to greater demand for the fuels used by utilities and other power generators.
Three significant drivers of global energy trends — increasing population, urbanization and rising living standards — are clearly evident in the residential and commercial sectors.
Energy and the city: Urbanization and its impact on residential energy trends.
Importantly, the increase in the number of light-duty vehicles in the world through 2040 will likely be nearly offset by the fact that the vehicles themselves will be far more efficient.
Liquid fuels — gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil — will remain the energy of choice for most types of transportation, because they offer a unique combination of affordability, availability, portability and high energy density.
Light-duty vehicles — the cars, pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) that people use in their daily lives — represent one of the most visible demand sectors.